Let's dive deeper into the latest economic numbers.
Why is Canada's inflation higher in March 2026?
In Canada's latest CPI (Consumer Price Index) report, headline inflation in March rose sharply to 2.4% from last month's 1.8%‚ likely, maybe, possibly due to the largest short-term gas price spike ever in Canada: +21% in one month. It translates to a 3.9% year-over-year increase in energy prices, which looks more palatable given last year's carbon price levy.
No one thought it possible, but that one-month gas climb made the grocery climb look tame — still a solid 4.0%, on top of the other 4.0-7.5% increases in each of the previous months since U.S. tariffs started doing their thing.
Stripping out the volatile energy component, the remaining CPI baskets declined to 2.3% from 2.6% last month. And core inflation (the average of the median and trimmed measures) micro-eased to 2.25%, clearly not yet showing the impact of the Iran conflict and global oil supply disruption — core inflation numbers lag more than headline.
Perhaps the federal government's recently announced pause on their gasoline and diesel tax from April 20 to Labour Day weekend (September 1) will help cushion the gas price spikes — reports poured in that consumers in many centres saw at least a 10-cent reduction when fueling up on the day the pause came into effect (depending on the local competition at your gas station).
Is the Bank of Canada rate sure to go up to tame inflation? Not necessarily. Higher energy prices also typically lead to reduced consumer spending, which could help moderate the inflationary impact of the oil shock. Canada's economy is already softening amid U.S. trade disruptions and uncertainty, which some experts believe will allow the BoC to leave its policy rate unchanged until more is known about the U.S. trade review.
Is Canada's labour market weakening in early 2026?
The March 2026 labour market data continued to show so-so results, with the unemployment rate holding at 6.7% and a 14K job gain. That gain was an improvement from the 84K job loss last month, but the unemployment rate remains elevated, even with a sharp slowdown in population growth so far in 2026. Just 8K Canadians were added per month this year versus 50K per month at this time in 2025.
Lower immigration targets, which could bring population growth to near zero in 2026 and 2027, are likely to 'improve' labour numbers on the surface, potentially padding recent results while masking deeper underlying weakness in the jobs market.
At the very least, the numbers suggest that instead of laying off workers, many businesses are simply holding pat — not hiring — as they (nervously) wait for uncertainty around higher energy prices and U.S. trade to clear.
With wage inflation also rising to 4.7% from 4.2%, economists expect that number to ease as the economy continues along a listless trajectory.
A soft labour market, however distressing it may be to some, could reduce consumer demand and inflationary pressures, diminishing any urgency for the Bank of Canada to consider a rate hike in 2026.
How is Canada's economic growth being affected by trade disruption and the Iran conflict?
Real GDP increased by 0.1% in February 2026. Add to that a projected gain of 0.2% for February, and Canada could (again) avoid a technical recession (Q4 2025 showed a contraction).
This GDP reading reflects conditions before the oil price shock — it may take several weeks to see the impact of the Iran conflict on Canada's economy.
Is the threat of a recession hanging over Canada in 2026?
The Bank of Canada had projected real GDP economic growth of 1.1% for 2026. Growth is better than a contraction, but that level isn't something to get excited about. And its forecast excludes a worst-case trade or higher energy prices scenario.
With the potential for U.S. trade disruption or rising inflation to drag more sectors, how much would it take for another quarter of contraction to appear? Right now, that's a rhetorical question. But GST relief, government stimulus, and infrastructure and trade initiatives are hoped to help prop Canada's economy as 2026 wears on.
Regardless, last year's up-and-down GDP readings reinforce the Bank of Canada's caution in holding its rate for now, as it seeks concrete and sustained indications of weakening or strengthening before making another rate-cut or rate-hike decision this year.
How did Canada's GDP fare in 2025?
Overall, Canada's GDP in 2025 grew by a meagre 1.6%. Here's a look at quarterly 2025 GDP (quarter over quarter and annualized pace), reflecting the rollercoaster ride of U.S. trade turmoil since January 2025:
- Q1 2025: +0.5% real, +2.1% annualized
- Q2 2025: -0.2% real, -0.9% annualized
- Q3 2025: +0.6% real, +2.4% annualized
- Q4 2025: -0.2% real, +0.6% annualized
Also, Statistics Canada recently revised its GDP data for 2022 to 2024, saying the economy expanded by 1.7% more than thought for those three years.
How is economic volatility affecting Canada's housing market in early 2026?
National housing sales and home price averages continue to trend downward in March 2026, with year-over-year sales and home prices showing slight month-over-month declines. Due to yet another layer of uncertainty added to household budgets from the disruption to the global oil supply caused by conflict in the Middle East, several real estate experts have again trimmed their housing activity forecasts for 2026.
Many buyers and sellers remained on the sidelines during a(nother) turbulent economic and political month. Housing analysts still hope for a Spring 2026 bump, given how long some Canadians have been waiting to make their move.
However, ongoing economic, geopolitical, and trade uncertainty, along with moderate inflation, may weigh on households and continue to inhibit markets until a more sustained recovery builds in 2027.
Read more here: Housing Market Forecast (2026-2030)
How is the U.S. economy influencing Canada's interest rate outlook?
Like it or not, our countries' economies are closely intertwined.
With a Trump presidency, here are some current concerns:
- Geopolitical developments due to recent U.S. maneuvers and demands could damage the global economy or raise oil prices.
- U.S. data sources, under political pressure, are giving some economists reason for concern that they're offering an unbiased read of the U.S. economy.
- U.S. trade policies are causing supply and demand shocks, leading to price hikes that are slowly being passed on to consumers in both countries.
- Trade disruptions and higher U.S. tariffs on certain Canadian imports are injecting significant uncertainty for Canadian companies and consumers, interrupting planning, hiring, investment, and spending decisions.
- Immigration issues between the two countries may further diminish our labour productivity.
- The interest rate differential between the two central banks is 2.0%, which is pressuring input prices.
- Proposed U.S. taxes (section 899 of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act) on Canadian investments and companies could have a significant impact on our economy.
- U.S. government debt is ballooning — current U.S. debt interest payments exceed the defence budget — and tariff revenue is $100B less than expected so far.