Let's dive deeper into the latest economic numbers.
Why is Canada's inflation higher in December 2025?
In Canada's latest CPI (Consumer Price Index) report, headline inflation in December unexpectedly rose to 2.4% from 2.2%, apparently due to base-year effects from last year's GST holiday (spanning from mid-December 2024 to mid-February 2025), which reduced prices relative to this year.
The increase is despite gas prices dropping by almost 14% month over month, thanks to a global oversupply of crude oil. It's noteworthy, however, that overall grocery prices rose again by 5.0%, driven by a 30% increase in coffee prices and a 16% rise in beef prices.
Stripping out the volatile energy component, the remaining CPI baskets rose to 3.0%. However, core inflation (the average of median and trimmed measures) fell to 2.6% from last month's 2.8%, a positive sign that inflation is moderating.
The latest inflation report underscores the Bank of Canada's estimate that inflation will likely remain within target (or near target), despite risks and economic instability.
Economic drag from trade disruptions and a soft economy should offset other price pressures, which may allow the BoC to leave its policy rate unchanged as the Fall 2025 rate cuts work through the economy.
At the very least, this report eases the pressure of introducing a rate hike, for now.
Is Canada's labour market weakening in late 2025?
December 2025's labour market numbers moved more in line with economists' expectations — a 'better grasp on reality' according to one expert — with a rise in the unemployment rate from 6.5% to 6.8% (0.1% above expectations), creeping up closer to the 7.1% high seen this past summer.
The rise in the number of people seeking work compared to last month wasn't due to an increase in layoffs, which remained in line with past periods. Instead, the labour slack is likely due to businesses remaining in 'wait' mode for both hiring and investment.
Fewer jobs were created, just 8,200 compared to November's 54,000 surprise addition, though with more full-time positions logged, a shift from a part-time focus recorded over the past few months.
So far, however, the second half of 2025 appears to have shown some resilience against the trade turmoil. According to the National Bank, the 180K cumulative jobs added from September to November 2025 is 'a sequence in the Canadian job market only seen in 2002.' Trade-impacted sectors, such as steel, aluminum, lumber and autos, which are very important to Canada's economy, are being hit hardest by layoffs, with the spread to other sectors less pronounced.
Lowered immigration targets — which could bring population growth to near zero in 2026 and 2027 — may result in the appearance of 'improving' labour numbers going into the new year.
Uncertainty will persist until a new U.S. trade agreement is announced (or the old CUSMA is left mostly intact). But the Bank of Canada won't lower or raise its policy rate as the labour market volatility continues.
How is Canada's economic growth being affected by trade disruption in late 2025?
Here's how GDP in 2025 has shaped up so far:
- Q1 2025 saw an unexpected real GDP gain of 0.4% (annualized growth of 1.6%), matching the increase in Q4 2024, likely due to consumers and businesses trying to get ahead of the U.S. trade war.
- Q2 2025 was a recessionary quarter: a 0.2% contraction in real GDP and -1.6% annualized growth, a significant decline from the growth pace recorded in Q1.
- Q3 2025 unexpectedly grew to an annualized pace of 2.6% (0.5% real GDP growth), though substantially buoyed by outsized government military spending coinciding with a substantial drop in imports (usually subtracted from exports when calculating Gross Domestic Product)
Update December 2, 2025: Statistics Canada recently revised its GDP data for 2022 to 2024, saying that the economy expanded 1.7% more than thought for those three years.
The threat of a recession disappears, for now.
The annualized growth pace grew to an unexpected 2.6% in Q3 2025 (0.5% real GDP growth, following the 0.3% decrease in Q2) — but it amounts to a festive-looking balloon about to be popped by a sharp dose of reality.
That's because in reality, that brisk growth is primarily due to a sudden spike in government military spending coinciding with a tangible drop in imports (which are usually subtracted from exports when calculating GDP, aka gross domestic product).
And, one of the most significant measures of economic revving, household consumption, fell by 0.4%, the worst reading since the pandemic.
In fact, the October 2025 GDP is already looking more gloomy, down by 0.3%. The sector declines this month were broad-based, with Stats Can reporting that 11 of 20 industrial sectors were negatively affected. Wood products experienced their sharpest decline since April 2020 after the U.S. imposed additional tariffs on lumber exports in mid-October. Current estimates indicate that Q4 2025 is contracting by 0.5% (annualized).
The economic growth party hasn't started yet, despite recent upward GDP forecast revisions by the Bank of Canada (0.5% annualized growth for Q4, then a 1.4% pace for 2026) and some economists, which brought out a word we haven't heard in a while, 'hike.'
If Q3 2025 was a growth outlier, more tepid growth results will quell talk of 2026 rate hikes.
How is economic volatility affecting Canada's housing market in late 2025?
National housing sales growth and home price averages declined again in November 2025, with year-over-year sales down by almost 11% and prices by nearly 4%.
Many buyers and sellers remained on the sidelines during a turbulent economic and political year. Some are coming off the sidelines, perhaps out of necessity or simply because more deals are available in higher-priced markets, such as those in Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver. Others may be buying before prices rise further in lower-priced, higher-value markets, like those in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
Two consecutive Bank of Canada policy rate cuts could spark increased winter and spring 2026 housing activity among Canadians who have been waiting (forever) for the right time to buy, despite financial concerns from the ongoing U.S. trade war. If sellers also flock to list, demand may balance out enough to keep home prices stable.
Read more here: Housing Market Forecast (2025-2029)
How is the U.S. economy influencing Canada's interest rate outlook?
Like it or not, our countries' economies are closely linked.
With a Trump presidency, here are some current concerns:
- Geopolitics are in flux due to recent U.S. machinations and demands, which could harm the global economy.
- U.S. data sources, under political pressure, are giving some economists reason for concern about whether they're offering an unbiased read on the U.S. economy.
- U.S. trade policies are causing supply and demand shocks, leading to price hikes that are slowly being passed on to consumers in both countries.
- Trade disruptions and higher U.S. tariffs on certain Canadian imports are injecting significant uncertainty for Canadian companies and consumers, interrupting planning, hiring, investment, and spending decisions.
- Immigration issues between the two countries may further diminish our labour productivity.
- The interest rate divergence between the two central banks is 2.0%, pressuring input prices.
- Proposed U.S. taxes (section 899 of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act) on Canadian investments and companies could have a significant impact on our economy.
- U.S. government debt is ballooning — current U.S. debt interest payments exceed the defence budget — and tariff revenue is $100B less than expected so far.